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Extensions of a Conflict Measure of Inconsistencies in Bayesian Hierarchical Models

机译:贝叶斯层次模型中不一致度量冲突度量的扩展

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摘要

In a recent paper we extended and refined some tools introduced by O'Hagan for criticism of Bayesian hierarchical models. Especially, avoiding double use of data by a data-splitting approach was a main concern. Such tools can be applied at each node of the model, with a view to diagnosing problems of model fit at any point in the model structure. As O'Hagan, we investigated a Gaussian model of one-way analysis of variance. Through extensive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations it was shown that our method detects model misspecification about as well as the one of O'Hagan, when this is properly calibrated, while retaining the desired false warning probability for data generated from the assumed model. In the present paper, we suggest some new measures of conflict based on tail probabilities of the so-called integrated posterior distributions introduced in our recent paper. These new measures are equivalent to the measure applied in the latter paper in simple Gaussian models, but seem more appropriately adjusted to deviations from normality and to conflicts not concerning location parameters. A general linear normal model with known covariance matrices is considered in detail. Copyright (c) 2009 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.
机译:在最近的一篇论文中,我们扩展和完善了O'Hagan引入的一些工具,用于批评贝叶斯层次模型。特别是,通过数据拆分方法避免重复使用数据是一个主要问题。可以将此类工具应用于模型的每个节点,以诊断模型结构中任何点的模型拟合问题。作为O'Hagan,我们研究了方差单向分析的高斯模型。通过广泛的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟,表明我们的方法在正确校准后,可以检测到O'Hagan以及O'Hagan之一的模型错误指定,同时保留了从假定模型生成的数据所需的错误预警概率。在本文中,我们根据最近论文中引入的所谓综合后验分布的尾部概率,提出了一些新的冲突度量。这些新措施等效于后者在简单的高斯模型中应用的措施,但似乎更适当地针对偏离正常性和与位置参数无关的冲突进行了调整。详细考虑了具有已知协方差矩阵的一般线性正态模型。斯堪的纳维亚统计杂志基金会(c)2009理事会。

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